Wristwatches traditionally have only two purposes: keeping time and decorating your arm. Like most people, I stopped needing a watch to keep time when I got a cellphone. As a man not particularly given to stylistic flourishes, once the watch’s utility disappeared, so too did its presence. While my experience isn’t universal, it’s common enough among the young and affluent that Apple will need to do more than roll its proverbial helmet onto the field to win.

Compare the collection of watches Apple is promoting at Monday’s event with its two most recent devices, the iPhone and the iPad:

The unveiling of the iPhone was a watershed moment. It transformed the phone market by being massively better than other mobile phones. Critically for the iPhone’s commercial prospects, when it was released circa 2007 nearly everyone carried some kind of phone with them wherever they went. These phones became obsolete overnight. Though not everyone grasped the magnitude of the change immediately, the iPhone’s introduction sundered mobile phone history. Before the iPhone, only the wealthy, the gadget-obsessed, and the world of business valued the smartphone’s constant connectivity and programability. Post-iPhone, our mothers and fathers, sisters and brothers, aunts and uncles found that the monthly expense of a data plan was suddenly more necessary than previously thought.

The iPhone was a perfect storm of execution, timing, and need. What of the iPad? It should not be surprising the iPad has been less prolific. Of course, the iPad has not been a failure. In fact, it’s done exceptionally well compared to the laptop industry and other, similar devices because it is a tremendous piece of hardware coupled with a compelling (though hardly perfect) software ecosystem. While not everyone needs a tablet, enough people are willing to replace or supplement their larger computing devices with an alternative that offers portability advantages and novel capabilities.

What then of the rapidly approaching Apple Watch release? Outlook not so good (at least if we’re using the iPhone as a yardstick). To succeed, Apple must convince watch-wearers that its offering is more stylish, more affordable, or more functional than what they already have or might otherwise acquire. This, however, is comparatively the easier task. To sate Apple’s own ambitions and the market’s expections, they must persuade non–watch-wearers that the phones Apple already sold them are no longer sufficient for half the tasks they were designed to accomplish. That is no small thing.

In the spirit of optimism, however, let’s try.

Identity. Today, we identify ourselves in myriad ways. Drivers’ licenses, social security numbers, credit cards, fingerprints and other biological indicators, passports, TouchID, etc. As technology continues to miniaturize and as our identities are increasingly connected to non-governmental sources, it makes sense for authentication methods to be integrated in smaller and smaller objects—today a phone, tomorrow a watch, a digital card, a bracelet, a tattoo. A watch isn’t identity‘s ultimate form, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be part of the transition.

Quantified Self. Provided an anti-technology movement doesn’t sweep the landscape, personalized health and data collection will continue to grow in importance and sensitivity. As with identity, an object worn on the wrist falls into the category of a good-not-great hire for this job. The sensors today’s Apple Watch ships with are certainly an improvement over the iPhone, but are they better than other wearables? Not particularly. Apple must hope that its strategy of integration and ecosystem overcome what is already—and will undoubtedly continue to be—stiff competition in the health and wellness space.

Communication. Does the Apple Watch eclipse your iPhone for receiving and sending information? Yes and no. A watch is more discreet. It is also less capable. It offers new ways to communicate yet runs the risk of erring on the side of cuteness and gimmickry. It justifies its existence by elevating notification to must-see status. You can tap your friends, draw silly pictures, and pick from pre-selected phrases and emoji. Is it revolutionary or merely Apple’s Nintendo Wii moment? A fantastic demo but frustrating and inefficient. Waggle for waggle’s sake. Only time will tell.

Price. “Starting at $349” is not a particularly difficult pill for much of the population to swallow. While not quite an impulse purchase, it easily qualifies as a gift or splurge under the right circumstances. What of the more expensive versions? The question of why someone would pay thousands of dollars for a device that will be obsolete in a few years has been raised frequently. I think I have the answer: Apple will offer a recycling program of some kind. Trade in your Apple Watch Edition, get a discount on this year’s model. Those that can afford the Edition model once but struggle to justify it multiple times can take advantage of the buyback program. Those whose consumption is more conspicuous will have no problem plunking down another five figures to stay current. (NB: Even if Apple chooses not to offer a first-party watch trade-in program, a market will form if for no other reason than the raw material value.)

It has proven nearly impossible to overestimate Apple’s fiscal success. Practically everything they touch turns to gold. Those that doubt Apple’s wisdom do so at their own peril. On repuation alone, the Apple Watch launch will certainly move a phenomenal number of units. The challenge will be bridging the gap between what the watch is today—truthfully a bulky and functionally limited device—and what it can become in the not-too-distant future as the underlying technology continues to mature.

The Internetification of things began long ago; Apple Watch circa 2015 is merely a milemarker on the road to an infinitely connected future. The Internet will not be denied its inexorable march to invisibility, burrowing deep into even the most pedestrian objects. The remarkability of a smart watch is a historical curiousity. I want to want an Apple Watch. Whether Apple’s vision for the watch comes to pass or its attributes are subsumed in our more general pursuit of wearable technology remains to be seen. For today, I can say that the Apple Watch is almost certainly not for me—though perhaps at half the thickness and twice the power, Apple and I will see eye-to-eye.